List of Loan Gdp Ratio E-book

Download ebook, World Bank Publications, Shang-Jin Wei.

Corruption, Composition of Capital Flows and Currency Crises
by Shang-Jin Wei

Corruption affects the composition of capital inflows in a way that may raise the likelihood of a currency crisis.

Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 2
by Jeffrey D. Sachs

For dozens of developing countries, the financial upheavals of the 1980s have set back economic development by a decade or more. Poverty in those countries has intensified as they struggle under the burden of an enormous external debt. In 1988, more than six years after the onset of the crisis, almost all the debtor countries were still unable to borrow in the international capital markets on normal terms. Moreover, the world financial system has been disrupted by the prospect of widespread defaults on those debts. Because of the urgency of the present crisis, and because similar crises have recurred intermittently for at least 175 years, it is important to understand the fundamental features of the international macroeconomy and global financial markets that have contributed to this repeated instability.

This project on developing country debt, undertaken by the National Bureau of Economic Research, provides a detailed analysis of the ongoing developing country debt crisis. The project focuses on the middle-income developing countries, particularly those in Latin America and East Asia, although many lessons of the study should apply as well to other, poorer debtor countries. The project analyzes the crisis from two perspectives, that of the international financial system as a whole (volume 1) and that of individual debtor countries (volumes 2 and 3).

This second volume contains lengthy and detailed case studies of four Latin American nations—Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Mexico—providing a wealth of comparative data and new statistics on the general economic development of each nation. The authors explore the various factors that contributed to the debt crisis in each country and analyze how the crisis was managed once it had taken hold. Trenchant economic analyses are enchanced by assessments of the stark political realities behind the policy choices facing each nation.


Striking an Appropriate Balance Among Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in Cape Verde
by Mr. Yibin Mu

Despite relatively fast economic growth over the past few years, Cape Verde’s public debt to GDP ratio has risenrapidly. Achieving an appropriate balance among public investment, growth, and debt sustainability has become a priority for the Cape Verdean authorities. The IMF-World Bank debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework has helped the authorities monitor the risks of debt stress. However, the DSA has a number of limitations. This paper intends to complement the DSA by addressing aspects currently not covered by the DSA. The paper evaluates public investment scaling-up strategies in Cape Verde by customizing the Buffie and others (2012) model for Cape Verde and conducting various scenario and sensitivity analysis. The paper assesses Cape Verde’s public debt risks, taking into account the link between public investment and growth. The paper concludes that the size of scaling-up and aspects of the economic structure have significant impact on the outcome of the public investment. A very large surge in public investment may lead to a debt to GDP ratio that reaches dangerous levels based on the usual DSA criteria. A more moderate scaling-up of public investment may contribute better to stable and sustained growth over the medium and long run. In addition, it is critical that the authorities ensure the quality of public investment.

Grenada
by International Monetary Fund

This paper discusses key findings of the Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Grenada. Four of the six quantitative performance criteria for end-November 2009 were met. The primary balance, excluding the grants target, was missed by 3.3 percent of GDP owing to higher-than-expected expenditures related to donor-financed capital projects and overruns on current spending associated with a sharp rise in unpaid invoices less than 60 days old. The authorities are requesting waivers for the missed performance criteria based on their implementation of corrective measures.

The Eastern Enlargement of the EU
by Marek Dabrowski, Jacek Rostowski, Professor and Head Department of Economics Jacek Rostowski

The Eastern Enlargement of the EU identifies the major fiscal challenges facing Central European countries on the road to European Union accession. The Introduction and three other chapters are on broad macro-economic issues, and four `sectoral’ chapters follow these on such questions as the fiscal impact of pensions, health reform, taxation and agricultural policies. A comprehensive analysis of tax systems and of the major elements of public social expenditures (pensions and health care systems) is presented. This analysis helps to identify the key factors determining the present size of governments and the need for, and prospects of, fiscal adjustment. In addition, a comparison of fiscal policy is carried out, followed by a long-term fiscal projection until year 2010.
The book is relevant to academics in macroeconomics, European studies and transition economics, as well as in public finance and public policy sciences. It should also appeal to a significant professional audience. Policy makers and economists interested in the accession process in EU countries – at ministries, National Banks, research departments of banks, international organizations (the EU Commission, World Bank, IMF, OECD) – will have a strong interest in this book.

Sustainability of Public Debt
by Reinhard Neck, Jan-Egbert Sturm

In recent decades, governments have built up substantial public debt, which is oftenaccompanied by a growing public sector and fiscal policies that neglect long-term considerations.The contributors to this CESifo volume consider whether the development of public debt in the UnitedStates and six EU countries is sustainable–that is, whether fiscal policies in these countries canbe continued without creating the potential for government bankruptcy. The sustainability of publicdebt presents a challenge not only to public policy design but also to economic theory. Thiscollection is the first book-length analysis of the theoretical foundations of public debtsustainability concepts and their application to the empirical study of actual budgetary policies.Conditions for public debt sustainability are derived and applied to various institutionalenvironments. Country studies cover the United States, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, theUnited Kingdom, and Switzerland, with special emphasis in the EU chapters on the fiscal criteria forentrance into the European Monetary Union and the Stability and Growth Pact. The contributors findthat in most countries, fiscal policy turns out to be sustainable in the long run and that allcountries (with the possible exception of Italy) were able to return to a sustainable path after aperiod of unsustainability.ContributorsTorben M. Andersen, Roel M. W. J. Beetsma, Henning Bohn,Marco Buti, Sylvester Eijffinger, Lars P. Feld, Daniele Franco, Emma Galli, Olaf de Groot, GottfriedHaber, Jakob de Haan, Andrew Hughes Hallett, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen, Gebhard Kirchgässner,Reinhard Neck, Fabio Padovano, Lars Haagen Pedersen, Jan-Egbert Sturm, Koen Vermeylen Reinhard Neckis Professor of Economics at Klagenfurt University, Austria. Jan-Egbert Sturm is Professor ofApplied Microeconomics and Director of KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich.


Access and Risk
by Osvaldo Adasme, Giovanni Majnoni, Myriam Uribe

This paper documents the link between risk, stability, and access to credit markets in an emerging economy. It presents annual credit loss distributions of Chilean banks for the period 1999-2005, providing the first empirical evidence of the cyclical pattern of expected losses and unexpected losses of bank loan portfolios in emerging countries. The paper provides three main contributions to the debate on bank solvency and access to credit markets. First, it derives nonparametric estimators of expected losses and unexpected losses, free from model error and, in particular, from distributional restrictions. Second, it shows how the distribution of credit losses for portfolios of retail and commercial loans is affected by the lumpiness of bank loans. Finally, it shows that the shape of credit loss distributions helps select appropriate policies to promote broader and sounder access to bank credit for the poor and the unbanked.